Per Establish the Run, Burks ran 29 routes on 38 Tannehill dropbacks and had a 16.6% target share. Burks made his return to action last week and immediately saw six targets from Tannehill, which he turned into three catches for 24 yards. Treylon Burks total receiving yards: Over 34.5 (+106). Tennessee has also given up passing plays that have gone over this prop in two of their last three games. Rodgers also flirted with this last week on a 36-yard throw to Allen Lazard, so he has a couple of different receivers capable of ripping off a big gain. They finally hit a 58-yarder last week, which has me interested in the Over 36.5 longest pass completion at -113. Rodgers seems to look for Watson on at least one deep shot a game. Key trend: Under is 5-2 in the Packers last seven games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee has been unable to get to 20 points over its last four games and the Packers were averaging just 15.8 points per game in the five games before their 28-point outburst on Sunday. Naturally, that could impact the scoring here a tad, but we're also looking at teams who play their best football when running the ball. On top of it being 24 degrees, there are forecasted to be wind gusts of up to 20 mph. The Under is 13-6 combined between these two teams this year and the conditions won't exactly be ideal. This just feels like another low-scoring game on Thursday night. It rose to 42.5 by Monday night but has since settled back down, falling to 42 on Tuesday and sitting firmly back at 41 by Wednesday. This total currently sits where it initially opened at 41, but it did see some movement throughout the week. Key trend: Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Tannehill currently has a 116 passer rating on play-action passes this year (fourth-best in the NFL). Against play-action, Green Bay ranks 30th in the NFL, allowing quarterbacks to post a 125.1 passer rating. Henry's success running the ball also will set up the Titans nicely for play-action attempts, which is another weakness of the Packers defense. Of course, Derrick Henry will be a focal point of this Tennessee offense and that matches up well against a Green Bay defense that ranks 28th in the NFL against the run. Mike Vrabel always has his Titans club well positioned on weekly basis and that has made them a good bet throughout the year, owning a 7-2 ATS record. Is this a sign of the ship being righted? Possibly, but I'll have to see more before we start blindly backing this offense again. Green Bay enjoyed their most encouraging win of the season on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers connected with Christian Watson for three touchdowns. That line jumped up to Packers -2.5 by Sunday night and has since moved to a full field goal advantage. Green Bay was a slim 1-point favorite on the lookahead, but faith does seem to be restored in them following their win over Dallas.
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